Evaluate Drawing Hands

Since you won’t flop a made hand too often, the other type of hand you’ll find yourself continuing with on the flop is a drawing hand. While a made hand is already complete on the flop, a drawing hand is one that must improve on the turn or river.  In certain situations, a drawing hand can actually be a statistical favorite over a made hand.

Types of Draws

Each card that would complete your drawing hand is referred to as an “out”. The more outs you have, the better the chance of completing your draw. For example, if you hold AcQc and the flop shows 5c2cTd, you need a club on the turn or river to complete your flush draw. Therefore, you are drawing for one of the 9 cards that would complete your flush (Kc, Jc, Tc, 9c, 8c, 7c, 6c, 4c, 3c).  You have 9 outs.

Drawing hands fall into three general categories, with stronger draws having more outs. Evaluating your hand correctly is one of the most important poker skills.

1. Very strong draws: Combined Flush and Straight draws
2. Strong draws: Flush and Straight draws with or without overcards
3. Weak draws: Gutshots, Overcards

Very Strong Draws

The strongest drawing hands are combined flush and straight draws and are usually referred to as “combination” or “combo” draws. Let’s say you’re holding [Qc][Jc] on a [Ad][Tc][9c] flop.

To improve to a flush, you need to hit one of the nine remaining clubs. One of the six non-club eights or kings in the deck will make you a straight, and should you hit the [8c] or the [Kc] you’ll have a straight flush.

The [Qc][Jc] has 15 outs to improve to a straight or better on the river making it a monster hand. Against a hand like [Ah][Ks] (top pair, top kicker) the [Qc][Jc] is actually a 52.5% favorite to win, and it is also a small favorite to win against any two pair hand. Even against a set, the combo draw has a 42% chance of winning.

Strong Draws

Flush and open-ended straight draws are also strong drawing hands on their own. If you’re holding [Kd][Jd] and the flop lands [Ad][6s][3d], you have nine outs to a flush. That still gives you a 39% chance of winning against top pair. If you held [4c][5c] on the same flop, you’d have eight outs to a straight and about a 35% shot at cracking top pair.

Straight or flush draws are even stronger if you also hold overcards. With [Ah][Kh] on a [6c][9h][Th] flop, you can not only make your hand by hitting a flush with one of the nine remaining hearts, but you can improve to top pair with one of the three aces or three kings left in the deck for a total of 15 outs.

Weak Draws

Weaker drawing hands include bare overcards and gutshot straight draws. Say you hold [Ad][Qs] and the flop completely misses you, falling [Td][6h][2s]. In this case, your hand has only six outs to improve—the three aces and three queens. You’re a 3 to 1 dog or worse to improve against any pair, even bottom pair.

Gutshot straight draws are even weaker holdings. A gutshot refers to a straight draw where the gap is in the middle rather than on the ends. So your draw has 4 outs rather than 8. With two cards to come, your odds are rarely better than 5 to 1 to improve by the river. Save your chips and wait for a better spot.